Zero Hedge
0
All posts from Zero Hedge
Zero Hedge in Zero Hedge,

Greece is Playing to Lose

Follow Zerohedge in Real-Time on FinancialJuice

HEADLINES

Obama to seek authority to use force against Islamic State

US mulls offering 'defensive lethal assistance' to Ukraine

Greece locked in talks with EU as Tsipras demands new debt deal

Greek Off'l: Restructuring debts, reducing primary surpluses, dealing with bad loans are 'red lines'

EU warns Greece: Don't assume Eurozone will accept your demands

German FinMin Schaeuble: Greece Will Need New Funding

Fed's Plosser: Fed does not fully understand low US yields

Fed's Plosser: There's little risk of deflation in US

US employment trends index (Jan 15): 127.86 (prev revd to 127.7)

NY Fed survey sees stable consumer inflation expectations

G-20 Draft Communique: ECB decision will support Eurozone recovery

US Tsy Sec Lew: Strong dollar to be topic at G-20 meeting

PBOC may name Zhang Xiaohui as Assnt Gov --SINA

BoJ's Kuroda: Weaker oil prices a plus for global economy

SNB's Jordan: SNB prepared to intervene in FX

CA Canadian housing starts (Jan 15): 187.3k (est 178.0k)

Opec predicts rising demand for its oil

Oil prices rise after Opec cuts US supply forecast

This briefing was sent at 20:00 GMT on 9 Feb 2015

 

COMMENTARY

Greece is Playing to Lose

The future of Europe now depends on something apparently impossible: Greece and Germany must strike a deal. What makes such a deal seem impossible is not the principled opposition of the two governments – Greece has demanded a debt reduction, while Germany has insisted that not a euro of debt can be written off – but something more fundamental: while Greece is obviously the weaker party in this conflict, it has far more at stake. Game theory suggests that some of the most unpredictable conflicts are between a weak, but determined, combatant and a strong opponent with much less commitment. In these scenarios, the most stable outcome tends to be a draw in which both sides are partly satisfied. (Project Syndicate)

Greece's debt-reduction offensive: Not for turning

LAST week was the week of the new Greek government's "charm offensive", a whirlwind diplomatic tour of Europe to win allies for its efforts to gain a cut in the country's debt burden and undo the onerous terms of its bail-out programme. In the end, the tour involved more offense than charm. Alexis Tsipras (pictured), the firebrand prime minister, found little sympathy on his visit to Brussels, while Yanis Varoufakis, his unorthodox finance minister, was rebuffed politely in a long string of European capitals (and rather impolitely in Berlin). Among European Union officials, the hope took hold that this show of unity would persuade Mr Tsipras to back off and accept an extension of the bail-out programme, if only temporarily, to avoid the increasingly worrisome possibility that Greece could soon run out of money to pay its debts. The moment for such a climb-down would have been Mr Tsipras's first policy speech to the Greek parliament on Sunday. (Economist)

Investors turn sharply more bullish on Eurozone

A closely watched investor sentiment index for the eurozone has raced up to its highest since May 2014, after the European Central Bank unveiled its €60bn a month asset purchasing programme. The Sentix composite index for February has a composite reading of 12.5 points, having been below zero for much of the last year. Last month, the index read just 0.9. Meanwhile, the expectations component of the index hit a nine-year high. (FT)

US Tsy Sec Lew & UK FinMin Osborne: Essential Elements to a G-20 Growth Plan

Over the past few years, our two governments have worked to fuel economic growth, create jobs and improve living standards. Our economies are now growing solidly. However, finance ministers and central-bank governors from the G-20 nations gather on Monday in Istanbul against a backdrop of challenges. Global growth is forecast to slow. Deflationary risks are evident in some regions. There is a shortfall in demand. And we face rising geopolitical risks from Ukraine and the Middle East that require coordinated action. Our message at the G-20 is this: Governments must use the full set of tools they have at their disposal to support their economies and realize the collective G-20 objective of strong, sustainable and balanced global growth. (WSJ)

The Latest Economic Conspiracy Theory

Friday’s jobs numbers were big, and the revisions below the surface were huge. Yet even before the release, the birther/vaxxer/flat-earther crowd had warned us about phony numbers. As public policy, this kind conspiracy thinking can cause the deaths of infants and the elderly. At least in markets, it merely loses you money.In December, I wrote:Today’s column is about stupidity. Perhaps that's overstating it; to be more precise, it is about the conspiracy-theorist combination of bias, innumeracy and laziness, with a pinch of arrogance thrown in for good measure.I am talking about the manifold ways various economic reports get misinterpreted, sometimes in a willful and ignorant manner.That column discussed some of the sillier theories from within the darker corners of the Internet. Admittedly, these weren’t from influential people or important media outlets; it was the usual collection of oddballs in tinfoil hats. (Bloomberg View)

 

DATA

US employment trends index (Jan 15): 127.86 (prev revd to 127.7)

NY Fed survey sees stable consumer inflation expectations

CA Canadian housing starts (Jan 15): 187.3k (est 178.0k)

GREEK STAND-OFF

Greece's leaders stun Europe with escalating defiance

Tsipras optimistic of eurozone deal after meeting Austria's Faymann

Greece may ask Eurogroup for bridge programme until August

Greek finMin: Euro will collapse if Greece exits

Greek FinMin Off'l: Greece to propose debt reduction via debt swap

Greek FinMin Off'l: We Want New Programme After Bridge Deal To Be Implemented Starting Sept 1

Greek FinMin Off'l: Our red lines are restructuring debts, reducing primary surpluses and dealing with bad loans

Greek FinMin Off'l: Greece aims to reduce target for primary budget surplus to 1.5% of GDP

German FinMin: Greece Will Need New Funding

Greek three-year bond yield highest since 2012

Italy Padoan: Greek bridging loan may be discussed at Eurogroup meeting

EU warns Greece: Don't assume Eurozone will accept your demands

Germany's Fuchs: There is no way out for Greece

UK planning for possible Greece exit from the eurozone

Moody's downgrades 5 Greek banks: ratings on review for further downgrade

GEOPOLITICS

Obama: Sending Ukraine lethal defensive weapons is an option

Obama examining options if Ukraine diplomacy fails

Obama: Russian isolation will only worsen if it continues aggression

Key US House members are considering legislation to provide "defensive lethal assistance" to Ukraine --Congressional aides

Obama to ask Congress for authority to use force against Islamic State by Weds --Congressional aides

Merkel: Russia must observe territorial integrity

Ukraine conflict: Merkel takes peace plan to Obama

EU wants Ukraine investment summit amid woes

GOVERNMENTS/CENTRAL BANKS

G-20 Draft Communique: ECB decision will support Eurozone recovery

US Tsy Sec Lew: Strong dollar to be topic at G-20 meeting

Fed's Plosser: Fed does not fully understand low US yields

Fed's Plosser: There's little risk of deflation in US

PBOC may name Zhang Xiaohui as Assnt Gov --SINA

BoJ's Kuroda: Weaker oil prices a plus for global economy

SNB's Jordan: SNB Has Room for Further Deposit Rate Cut

SNB's Jordan: SNB prepared to intervene in FX

BoE's Carney Applauds ECB Policy

BoE's Carney urges 'big push' on bank rules, worries over reform fatigue

FIXED INCOME

Treasuries rise as Greece, Ukraine worries fester

ECB Settles EUR42.9 Bln Of Covered-Bond Purchases As Of Feb. 6

ECB Settles EUR2.7 Bln Of ABS Purchases As Of Feb. 6

Microsoft selling $10.75B in debt, sees over $26B in orders

Moody's assigns Aaa rating to Microsoft's proposed debt issuance

Negative interest rates are hammering Germany's savings banks

Deutsche Bank jumps on bond rally with new debt

EQUITIES

NY puts monitor at Deutsche to probe possible forex rigging

HSBC Under Renewed Scrutiny Over Swiss Tax Avoidance Claims

McDonald's January sales disappoints

Qualcomm nears $1bn deal resolving China antitrust dispute

Tahoe to Buy Rio Alto for $1.09 Billion to Add Peru Gold

Twitter saw 40 percent more government data requests in past 6 months

Randgold Resources hit by lower gold prices

Loews Q4 Earnings Beat, Falls Y/Y on Low Investment Income

Comcast-Time Warner Cable Deal Still Up in the Air a Year Later

Manitowoc to Give Icahn Board Seats in Settlement

Alibaba fights for smartphone users in China with $590m stake in Meizu

US could scrap prosecution deal after HSBC tax row

CURRENCIES, COMMODITIES, METALS

Opec predicts rising demand for its oil

Oil prices rise after Opec cuts US supply forecast

Yen rises on worries about Greece, Ukraine

Euro stumbles to lowest since Jan 28 then rebounds

Gold takes succour from geopolitical strains

COMMENT: Citi: says oil could plunge to $20, and this might be tthe end of OPEC

EMERGING MARKETS

Ukrainian central bank cuts hryvnia official rate

Turkish lira shudders as Erdogan pushes for cuts

India estimates 7.4% GDP growth for year to March

China's largest property developer reports January sales lower 

Follow Zerohedge in Real-Time on FinancialJuice