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Long/Short Investments in L/S Equity: Valuation and Ideas,

​Panera (PNRA) Valuation Under Revenue and Margin Sensitivity Assumptions

Assuming constant 14% EBITDA margins throughout the projection period, 9% Y/Y revenue growth margins would get PNRA to a fair share price of $220, or roughly even with where it currently trades.

Adjusting year-over-year revenue growth in increments of 50 bps across a 6.5%-10.0% spectrum would give the following share price outputs:

If instead we assume this 9% Y/Y revenue figure that gave us the current market price, and adjust the EBITDA or EBIT margin in increments of annual contraction/expansion of 10 bps, we derive a much wider swath of outputs. The “base” EBITDA margin stands at 14%. “B + 10” entails margin expansion of 10 bps each year throughout the projection period, such that it stands at 15% (14% + 10*0.1%) by the FY2026. Conversely, “B – 30” entails margin contraction of 30 bps each year, such that it equals 11% by the FY2026.


Conclusion

PNRA doesn’t offer ideal value and can’t promise enough growth for me to realistically consider it a buy candidate. I believe it is fairly valued to slightly overvalued at its current price point.