Fan Yang
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

Gold Loses Luster after a Triangle Breakout

This week, gold rallied, coming up from a triangle pattern seen in the 4H chart. We can attribute part of this rally to the fact that the People's Bank of China devalued the Yuan. The reason is that this devaluation causes other central banks to be less hawkish, if not more dovish. This type of environment can fuel a "currency war" where central banks use dovish monetary policy to keep their currencies low. The ultimate goal is to protect exports from becoming less competitive.

In any case, I find that gold becomes appealing when central banks go at it. In general when there is increased uncertainty in the fiat currency market, gold becomes more appealing. 

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart 8/14
(click to enlarge)

In the previous update on gold, I noted upside risk towards 1140-1145 area, a previously key support. Instead, price stalled under 1130, and the 200-period simple moving average in the 4H chart. This signals bearish control. 

Now, I have to admit I have a little bit of a bearish bias to begin with, simply because the prevailing trend was bearish in July before the triangle. Plus, we are seeing price break below a rising speedline from last week in the 4H chart. There is also a strong bearish candle that appears to be engulfing the previous 2 bullish candles. This bearish candle also showed respect to the 200-period SMA. For me, signs are mounting for a bearish continuation attempt back to the lows around 1080. However, to be conservative, I would watch the 1100 handle for support. IF price bounces off 1100, it would show respect to the triangle as a bottom, and the 1140-1145 area I noted in the previous update would still be in sight.