Arcángel de Jesús Montoya
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Arcángel de Jesús Montoya in Money Trafficking,

Ryanair's August Options Are Moderately Undervalued

Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY), a holding company for Ryanair Limited (Ryanair), which operates a low fare, scheduled-passenger airline serving short-haul, point-to-point routes between Ireland, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe and Morocco, is reporting earnings on Monday, July 25, before market opening:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

The company beat earnings estimates in 38% of time in the last eight quarters, underperforming in 62% of time, and has seen volatile movements in the market price of its stock over the last three months:

The market participants expect the following numbers over the next few quarters, including the upcoming one:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

On the other hand, market data show that the stocks's August options are somewhat cheap:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

The monthly straddles (options with a strike price of $65) are worth around 7.9% of the current market price of the stock. Historically, the stock has been a bit more volatility than that on a monthly basis over the last year:

(Source: Google Finance. Calculations by author)

As you can see, the stock has had a monthly standard deviation of 8.15% over the last 52 weeks, while the straddle expiring in a bit less than a month has an implied monthly volatility of around 7.9%, also including volatility from the earnings event next week. I therefore see signs of moderate undervaluation in these options.

What do you think of this trade?