Fan Yang
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

Silver (XAG/USD) - a developing bearish reversal

Silver price has completed a price top and could be in a bearish reversal, or at least a correction in the medium-term.

Silver (XAG/USD) 8/30

(click to enlarge)

Price top:
- The 4H chart shows that silver price was bullish entering July. 
- After tagging 21, silver price consolidated sideways between that high and a low of 19.20.
- Price broke below this consolidation low August 21st. 
- Note that price has broken below the 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs) in the 4H chart.
- These SMAs have also gone from a bullish alignment to a bearish alignment. (Now, the 200SMA is above the 100SMA, which is above the 50SMA) .
Support and Resistance:
- Price is stalling around 18.50 to start the week. 
- Notice a bullish divergence between price and the 4H RSI.
- If price indeed finds support here and develops a bullish swing, consider it a correction against the new downtrend. 
- If this scenario is correct, we should expect resistance in the 19.20-19.50 area - that is if price manages to push above the current resistance pivot at 19.00.
- We should also monitor the RSI. If the market is indeed turning bearish in the 4H chart, we should anticipate resistance when the RSI is around 60.
Downside risk:
- There is some further downside risk to at least 18.00. 
- Further down, price could reach to 17.00, where silver could be supported by a rising trendline seen in the daily chart.
- If price fails to hold below 19.50, breaks above 19.60, and holds above 19.00, we should consider the bullish continuation scenario, or at least another push towards the 20.50-21.00 area. 

Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)