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Biotech Weekly: Stories To Track Into SABCS, Oncothyreon And Puma Biotechnology

After discussing Celsion Corporation in my first Stories To Watch Into SABCS, I will discuss upcoming data at SABCS for Oncothyreon and Puma Biotechnology in my second piece.

I think Oncothyreon can easily reach $3.75-$4.00+ before SABCS data, though volatility should be expected.

I believe either notable ORR improvement for the ONT-380/T DM1 trial or continued display of promising efficacy trends in the brain metastases patient group could trigger a $5+pps for ONTY.

While I think that the substantial issues with Grade 3/4 diarrhea will continue to cloud the clinical relevance of neratinib, any positives out of SABCS could surprise investors.

I believe the easy money in Puma on the short side has already been made and that a neutral to ever-so-slightly bearish view is the appropriate stance at current levels.

On November 2, I highlighted Celsion Corporation (NASDAQ:CLSN) as a name to watch into the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium ("SABCS") with a potential runup into its P2 ThermaDox recurrent chest wall breast cancer data at SABCS and the potential for a full TheraSilence partnership providing attractive short-term upside for this name trading just above cash levels. The name saw a quick gain of almost 20% and has gained almost 10% after two weeks.

In my initial piece, I provided a summary of public companies that would be presenting starting with the letters A-I. Below I have provided a summary of public companies that will be presenting starting with the letters J-Z.

This second installment of my SABCS series will discuss the outlooks of Oncothyreon (NASDAQ:ONTY) and Puma Biotechnology (NYSE:PBYI) into the conference, both of which are developing small molecule inhibitors of HER2 to treat HER2+ breast cancer.

On May 26, in my piece tracking institutional money flow in the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) annual meeting that discussed Oncothyreon and Puma, I stated that there was plenty of downside in Puma Biotechnology if the market were to stop believing the Puma buyout story. At the time of the article, Puma sat with a market cap of $6.14 billion and Oncothyreon was valued at $308 million. As of Friday's close, Puma's market cap has declined well over 50% to $2.39 billion while Oncothyreon has seen a very slight rise in valuation to a $310 million market cap. With many market participants of the opinion that the chances of a buyout continue to fade for Puma and with the grade 3/4 diarrhea being a constant worry for trial subjects taking Puma's neratinib, the market cap gap has continued to close since May 26.

Even more dramatic of a view is the percent change in stock price since May 26, which illustrates a significant loss of capital for Puma investors.

Below I will look to cover what will be presented at SABCS and why interested investors should care about it. It's important to remember that each data release on either Puma's neratinib or Oncothyreon's ONT-380 has the potential to cause volatility in both names as investors try to update their view on the future for the HER+ breast cancer treatment market on the fly with the emergence of new data. Abstracts were released on Friday and will be linked in my research below to the title of the presentation if the abstract is available. While it is nice to now have access to the abstracts, it's important to realize that data from the abstracts (if the abstract did include data) was generally old and that data presented at the conference will be much fresher.

Upcoming Oncothyreon SABCS Presentations

[P4-14-20] A phase 1b study of ONT 380, an oral HER2-specific inhibitor, combined with ado trastuzumab emtansine ((T DM1)), in HER2+ metastatic breast cancer (MBC)

-No grade 3 diarrhea at any dose

-Based on 33 patients evaluable for a response, the patients experienced a clinical benefit rate (CBR) (complete response, partial response, or stable disease greater than 6 months) of 58% (19/33) and an overall response rate ("ORR") (complete response or partial response) of 33%...