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EUR/USD - A Technical Breakdown of the Bearish Continuation Signal

The EUR/USD has been essentially consolidating since March after it made a low on the year at about 1.0460. The daily chart shows the consolidation pattern. Let's review the breakout and the clues we got throughout the pattern. 

EUR/USD Daily Chart 11/8

(click to enlarge)

1) First of all, the swing to 1.17 and the subsequent inability to climb to 1.17 suggested a possible completed ABC pattern. That anticipation required a medium-term to long-term bearish bias.
2)This bias would be supported by simply juxtaposing the ECB with the FOMC. While the ECB is dovish, the FOMC is neutral and slightly hawkish, looking to raise rates possibly early 2016. From a technical standpoint, looking at the prevailing downtrend, before April, should provide confidence to the bearish bias.
3) After the tag of 1.17, price came down to 1.10 and then back above 1.14. This was the first failure to climb back to 1.17. The respect of the lower resistance pivots suggested that bulls have lost command of this market. Now it took another swing towards 1.15 before price started to really fall, but the idea was still the same - that the resistance pivots in the 1.14-1.15 area held.
4) Now, the sharp break below 1.11 added signs that bears are taking over. Breaking below 1.11 cleared the September-October support and a rising trendline. 
5) A break below 1.08 clears a May-August support, further confirming a bearish outlook. We now have a mature bearish continuation breakout, and the 1.0460 low is in sight. 

If you missed this run, it is a bit risky to get in now. If you do, don't be surprised if there is a medium-term consolidation with upside risk back towards 1.12, even if the EUR/USD were to eventually slide to 1.0460. It might be prudent to wait for a pullback towards the 1.11-1.12 area.