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$30 oil ‘within days’ — what analysts see for the market after Doha talks fail

Bakken drilling in North Dakota in 2013

After talks in Doha, Qatar failed to reach a deal on an oil-production freeze, analysts are reassessing oil prices, with some even predicting U.S. crude could tumble to as low as $30 a barrel.

U.S. crude-oil prices lurched between losses of around 4% and 6% on Monday , beginning with an initial sharp plunge in Asian trading hours. At last check, WTI for May CLK6, -3.12% slid $1.55, or 3.8%, to $38.83 a barrel, while Brent crude LCOM6, -2.41% dropped $1.42, or 3.3%, to $41.67 a barrel. Prices drew some support from news of a cut in production by Kuwait.

Crude prices have rallied around 30% since February on hopes of curbs on output. However, investors knew there was a potential deal-breaker: Iran’s steadfast rejection of anything that would prevent it from bringing its oil production back up to pre-sanction levels of 4 million barrels a day.

In the end, Saudi Arabia, which had been insisting Iran take part in any deal, walked away from the table in Doha.

To some, the meeting was doomed, given just one oil minister felt able to face the press horde:

• “This is an extremely bearish scenario. Prices could touch $30 a barrel within days,” said Natixis analyst Abhishek Deshpande, according to Dow Jones Newswires.

• Watch what happens Monday, as the extent of the oil-price fall will be telling for how deep the rout could get, Angus Nicholson, market analyst at IG, told clients...


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