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USD: Bearish Bat Buildout to 117? Here's How It Went Last Time.

USD: Bearish Bat Buildout to 117? Here's How It Went Last Time.

U.S. Dollar Index ICEUSA:DX1!

Since futures trading began on the DX following late 1985's Plaza Accord, this trade-weighted USD measure has completed 14-year Bearish Bat (which performed quite well); and may now be in the process of building out another. The construction, ratios and consolidation bottom are all very similar, with the potential Bat's PRZ falling in line with the secular descending trend line near 116. Though forecasting time at this timeframe has more than a hint of arbitrariness about it, an approximate repetition of the 1985-2001 Bat puts DX at the PRZ in late 2016/early 2017. Until then, assume a strong USD and an especially beleaguered EM.