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Aussie Resilient after Doha-Shake

The Aussie fell across the board (expect against CAD), after Doha summit failed to provide an agreement to freeze global oil supply. Basically, this means continuing pressure on oil price as well as other commodities. We saw the commodity dollars, AUD, CAD and NZD all slide against other majors, and all of them rebounded after the initial shake. Aussie in particular is showing signs that it is very bullish.

The Australian Dollar is sinking as hopes for oil production freeze thaw

AUD/USD 4H Chart 4/18

(click to enlarge)

Looking at the 4H chart, we can see that AUD/USD was already on a bullish trend, though it became choppier in the latter part of March and beginning of April. Nonetheless, price has been trading mostly above the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages. After the dip that followed the Doha meeting, price still held above the SMAs, and made a low that is still higher than the previous low. Furthermore, the RSI-price dynamic shows something call the "bullish reversal", where we have a lower RSI low matched by a higher price low. This suggests at least another higher high in the works. 

AUD/USD Weekly Chart 4/18

(click to enlarge)

In the short-term, we should respect the bullish bias and resilience of AUD/USD. However, as we look into the medium-term horizon, or down a few weeks or a couple of months, we might want to curtail the bullish outlook. 

The weekly chart shows that there is still room towards 0.7930-0.80, where price would meet a falling trendline and the 100-week SMA, as well as approach a previous support/resistance pivot area.