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EUR/USD - Waiting on Breakout with Bearish Preference

Consolidation: The EUR/USD has been consolidating since it pushed above 1.14. The 1H chart shows that the support and resistance pivots are not very clear, but there create a general support area between 1.1325 and 1.1350 and a resistance area between 1.1430 and 1.1450. The bias is bullish because the prevailing trend in the short-term is bullish. 

EUR/USD 1H Chart 4/11

(click to enlarge)

Bullish in the Short-term: The market indeed has bullish momentum and bias. But, I would refrain from buying on a breakout above 1.1450 because there is going to be a lot of resistance above that up to 1.15. Above that, price might push to the 1.17 resistance pivot (refer to daily chart). For this outlook, I rather buy around 1.1350, where the reward to risk is attractive even if the target is simply back to 1.1425, with a more aggressive target towards 1.15. 

Now, when we look at the EUR/USD daily chart, we can see that price is near the resistance area of a multi-month consolidation range .

EUR/USD Daily Chart 4/11

(click to enlarge)

Range Resistance: It should be noted that EUR/USD was bearish heading into this range. Now, this is a longer, medium-term chart compared to the very short-term 1H chart. The slide in USD since Dec could be attributed to the FOMC becoming more cautious in its rate hike campaign. But it should be noted that there is still a divergence between the FOMC and the ECB, in that the ECB is still in a dovish mode, while the FOMC has turned the corner. Therefore, in my opinion, the medium to long-term pressure remains to the downside.

Range Set up: We can also ascribe to the conventional range trading strategy of selling near the resistance and buying near the support, with a target towards the middle of the range. If that is the case, then we should anticipate a pullback towards the 1.10 area. A conservative target could be close to the 1.1080-1.11 range. 

Trade Idea: If we sell around 1.1420 with a stop near 1.1470 (just above the current resistance pivot), then we would risk 50 pips. The most conservative target could be 1.1350, which provides a 7:5 r:r. But the 1.11 target would provide a 320:50 r:r. Looking at the possible reward to risk, and the fact that EUR/USD is in resistance area of a multi-month range, I would prefer to sell into a possible breakout to the downside, than to buy into a possible break to the upside.