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AUD/NZD Testing a Falling Trendline

After a period of consolidation in mid-February through early March, AUD/NZD started to fall again from the 1.0530 March high, and dug into fresh record lows and almost tagging the parity (1.00) level as it marked an April low at 1.0020. 

AUD/NZD 4H Chart 4/9

(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart shows the market rebounding from 1.0020 until it hit 1.0220. Price is essentially stalling as it tests a falling trendline coming down from that 1.0530 high. It is consolidating roughly between 1.0150 and 1.0220. A break below 1.0140 should open up the bearish continuation scenario with 1.0020 and parity in sight. 

A break above 1.0220 would likely open up a period of bullish correction, but we should limit this outlook to the short-term because of the strong prevailing downtrend. Perhaps the area around 1.0320-1.0340 would be an appropriate target in the very short-term. This area involves a previous support/resistance pivot and the 200-period SMA. Also look for a bearish divergence, or at least overbought condition from the RSI (above 70) when considering hopping back into the prevailing downtrend.