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WTI Crude Oil Poised to Test the 2014-Low at 91.25

Sharp Reversal: WTI Crude Oil Has made a sharp turnaround since the 2014-high at 107.56 made in June. In late August and early September, price consolidated above 92.60. This week, traders pushed WTI Crude lower, tagging the 92.00 handle. So far, this breakout is not clear yet, but price definitely looks bearish, poised to break lower toward the 91.25 low on the year.

At this point, a break above 97.00 will be needed to establish a price bottom, and introduce a bullish outlook.

(WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart 9/9)

Central Pivot: In the weekly chart, we can see that the 91.25 low on the year is essentially in the middle of the price range set back in 2011 when price fell from 114.81 to 77.93. 

Consolidation: While we can say that price action has been essentially sideways relative to thsi 2011 range, we can also say that it has been slightly bullish since the 2012-low of 77.30 until the 2013 high around 112. In the past few weeks, price took away this bullish bias as it fell below the 200-, 100-, and 50-week simple moving averages (SMAs). Also, the 200-week SMA has been serving as resistance the past few weeks, adding to the case of a bearish outlook at least to test the 91.25 low on the year.

Bearish Target: A break below the 91.25 low and central pivot for long-term range would open up a bearish outlook. While we can't always expect price to swing from consolidation highs to consolidation lows, we might be able to anticipate a bearish extension to the 84.07-85.93 area, which contains the 2013-low and the Nov. 2012 low. 

(WTI Crude Oil Weekly Chart)