The EUR/USD is at a key juncture in the 4-hour chart. For 2 and a 1/2 weeks we've had a nice upward sloping trendline, which the pair respected. Today, we see the trendline failed to hold, as the EUR is weaker generally. The EUR/USD is at a key juncture in the 4-hour chart.For 2 and a 1/2 weeks it has respected a nice upward sloping trendline.Today, the trendline failed to hold, as the EUR is weaker generally. This begs the question, is it time for a further retrace of the recent up-swing? Retrace Scenario: The USD has been pairing some of its extreme losses since putting in a high at 1.3565 following the FOMC decision last week. The question is, was the post-FOMC a "buy the rumer, sell the news" reaction, with the USD weakening before hand, but now strengthening in the aftermath? If yes, the key next test will come at 1.3450 area, which is both a horizontal pivot from August 18th, as well as where the 55-EMA is currently.A break through that support level will open up the 1.34 handle, and then the 200-MA's below (1.3330 for SMA, 1.3340 for EMA).This would also conform to a mean-reversion if we remain in a broader uptrend, but need some pullback before the next upward leg. Therefore, the retrace here can still come with a longer term bullish posture for this pair. Bullish Case: For the shorter-term bullish case, the supports at the recent lows at 1.3460 and the key level we described above (the 55-EMA/pivot) should act as support and a springboard for further gains. The resistance up above are a) the downward sloping resistance trendline, b) horizontal pivot at 1.3547 and c) the previous post-FOMC high (1.3565). Here's the EUR/USD in the 4-Hour: (Click on the image and press the right arrow button to see the latest price action) - Nick