Nick Nasad
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GBP/AUD - Daily Shows Chance of Topping, Key Test of Support Ahead

The GBP/AUD has had a monster rally since March, climbing from 1.4450 all the way up to 1.7450. A trip of almost 3,000 pips! During that time, the pullbacks have been fairly minimal.

Has this rally reached its mature/exhaustion phase?

We currently passed through the 1.7180 area which was a confluence of a) LT support trendline, b) the 21-daily ema, and c) a horizontal pivot.

  • Right now we continue to respect the long term upward sloping trend-line.
  • However, we are also testing it, and a break of that TL will be a bearish signal.
  • The 21-EMA (red) has acted as support as well, a break of it would be another bearish signal.
  • If support at 1.72 handle turns to resistance, then we may be looking at a downside target of 1.6950, 1.6880, 1.6805.
  • One plan is with the break of short-term support, would be to wait for pullback to the old level of support, which should turn to resistance, and short from there.
In the 1HR timeframe, this pair has fallen substantially over the last 2 sessions and so its natural to wait for a pullback before considering new shorts. But, certainly, there is certainly some new found momentum behind the AUD pair, and with the daily timeframe showing the pair susceptible to a further retracement, it could be interesting for the AUD ahead.

Let's see if it can keep it up.

- Nick