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Update: Don't Read Too Much Into Coupons.Com Q4 Earnings

Coupons.Com (COUP) reports Q4 earnings next Monday, February 9. Consensus estimates are in line with management guidance: revenues of $62-$64M and Adj. EBITDA of $6-$8M. I don't have strong conviction whether they beat or not this quarter. Given the company's opaque disclosures, it's just hard to say. They didn't quantify the revenue contribution from the Eckim acquisition in Q3. Furthermore, they haven't disclosed the amount of revenue being generated from the coupon codes business; they could have simply allocated more sales & marketing dollars in Q4 to boost revenue from coupon codes (as mentioned in my article, RetailMeNot (SALE) is a coupon code business that trades at a big discount to COUP). With the Eckim acquisition and the opaque coupon code business, COUP could easily manufacture a revenue beat.

Therefore, I wouldn't read too much into the Q4 headline numbers. This is a long-term short, and the big picture… Read More …