Chris Lau
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Chris Lau in Value Stocks,

Why Acadia Pharmaceutical is on Fire, and Why It Won’t Last

Markets are warming up to Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD). Since April, bulls moved the stock 61 percent. Its conference call from its quarterly earnings discussion should give investors pause.

NUPLAZID costs are higher for patients that desired, costing $1,950 per month. This makes the drug a specialty drug. Along with no other indications, the addressable market for the product is limited.

Operational risks for NUPLAZID and the commercial launch in June 2016 has risks. In the next month, the stock may move higher in anticipation of a strong start for sales. The reality will likely not meet expectations. Higher expenses (it was $50.3M in the first quarter), R&D spend, and SG&A will weigh on the balance sheet.

Even though there are clear risks, ACAD may surprise the bears, if the sales reps perform better than expected.