Fan Yang
1
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

AUD/USD - Coiling with some Bearish Bias

he AUD/USD has entered a period of coiling. It is essentially consolidation with less and less confidence from bulls and bears.


(audusd 4h chart)

Here are some signs of consolidation:

1) First let's look at the signs of consolidation: Price is trading between the moving averages in the 4H chart.
2) The MAs in the 4H chart are converging.
3) The RSI is stuck between 60 and 40.

Here are reasons I believe another bearish swing is in play:

1) The most recent rally attempt was rejected around 0.9445, which was the level of some previous highs. The swing poked through this level, and retreated sharply. This can be a clear-out, which shows the lack of confidence of the bulls in this market. 
2) The RSI has recently tagged 30 in the 4H chart. Then the RSI was unable to push to 70, holding mostly under 60. If the RSI dips back below 40, we are likely witnessing some bearish continuation in the short-term.

If price respects the 0.9445-0.95 area ,the downside risk is first back to the 0.9320-30 lows. Below that we should limit the bearish outlook to the key support area 0.92-0.9220.

The bearish bias I am presenting is within the structure of the current consolidation. However, the prevailing trend is bullish, so there is bullish bias in that sense. Thus the bearish outlook should be limited, and the bullish outlook should be kept in the back of the trader's mind, because AUD/USD has just recently tagged 0.95 making fresh highs on the year.