Avery Schumer
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This Analysts Thinks Airline Earnings Can Fall 40% And They'd Still Be a Steal

Most airline stocks have had a rough go of it so far in 2016, but Buckingham Research Group analyst Daniel McKenzie believes things are looking up for Q1 earnings season. Buckingham has raised its Q1 earnings estimates for JetBlue Airways Corporation  and Delta Air Lines, Inc.  and upped its price targets for Delta, American Airlines Group Inc  and United Continental Holdings Inc .

McKenzie remains bullish on airline stocks and sees their compelling valuations providing a floor in the near term.

“Today, the XAL remains 13.5 percent off a 52-week high and from our perspective, earnings could fall 40 percent on average for the Big 3 and valuations would remain attractive (e.g. with AAL’s stock currently trading at $39.13, we could cut our 2016 EPS by 30 percent and the current valuation implies a 10x P/E/ multiple) in the context of otherwise improving fundamentals and massive FCF,” McKenzie explained.

He noted that at current valuations, many of the airlines would chose to go private before they would ever consider bankruptcy.