Fan Yang
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

Th S&P500 Threatening to Form a Short-term Price Top

The S&P500 index has been rallying from a low near 1870 at the end of September to a high near 2115 last week. As we can see in the 4H chart, the index has been making higher highs and higher lows. Today, price action is threatening this pattern, and forming a possible top. 

SP500 4H Chart 11/9

(click to enlarge)

If price falls below 2070, it would essentially form the first lower low since early October. But note that even then, it was a brief lower low and part of a consolidation. So, let's see if price will break below 2070 and also fail to rally back above 2100. That would be a strong signal of a price top, which should open up the 2000 psychological handle as well as a support/resistance pivot area as seen in the daily chart. We can also see that in the very short-term, the 2040 area also involves factors of support like a common support earlier in the year, and a resistance pivot in October. 

Looking at the volume of the daily chart, I would anticipate a period of bearish correction within the context of a medium-term consolidation. This means, if price breaks below 2000, there would be downside risk towards the 1880 level down to 1840. It looks like the rally we saw in October had declining volume. With volume picking up again as price tops, bears might be taking over at least in the short-term.

SP500 Daily Chart 11/9

(click to enlarge)