No matter what, it's going to be a close-call... Fed members notably split And investors’ conviction of rate hikes in 2015 has been drifting... Market pricing of the timing of lift-off has fluctuated in a wide range this year: Market has priced 20-100% hike odds by Sept. Odds of 2015 hike fluctuated between 50-100% Key data releases have led to big shifts in market pricing as Fed emphasised data dependence Strong January employment data led markets to fully price hike by September Dovish March and June FOMC meetings led to lower odds of a hike this year Current market pricing suggests 30% odds of a hike in September and 75% chance of lift-off this year Low market pricing likely lowers chances of a hike in September Fed would like to avoid surprising the market Hiking against market expectations in September means greater volatility and more tightening of financial conditions than desired Economisseds remain split... But then again - they have been clueless... And as Ransquawk notes, the various banks are also split down the middle on whether The fed should hike or not next week... NO HIKE: BarCap, BNP, Credit Ag, Credit Suisse, HSBC, GS HIKE: BoFA, Deutsche Bank, JPM, RBS, Wells Fargo Here's why Deutsche Bank thinks they should raise rates in September... * * * Finally, this is the most important chart for the next few days... h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer Simply put - The more you buy stocks, the higher the probability of a turmoil-creating rate-hike next week - that's the Dow-Data-Dependent Fed at work folks!!