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Nutrisystem (NTRI) Q1 Earnings: Can the Stock Surprise?

Weight management products and service provider Nutrisystem Inc. NTRI is scheduled to release first-quarter 2016 results on May 3. In the last reported quarter, the company posted earnings of 19 cents per share, which were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

On an average, Nutrisystem has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 29.9% over the last four quarters.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play

Nutrisystem forecasts first-quarter 2016 revenues in the range of $148 million to $158 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected in the band of $5.5 million to $7.5 million. Meanwhile, earnings are forecasted in the range of 2 cents to 7 cents.

Nutrisystem’s innovative products are expected to expand its customer base that will eventually drive reactivation revenues (revenues earned from existing customers after the first nine months of their purchase).

Meanwhile, higher Uniquely Yours product sales as well as improved engagement and retention efforts are expected to boost customer paid length of stay, which will drive top-line growth.

However, a sluggish dieting market and intensifying competition are primary headwinds in the near term.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Nutrisystem is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP:  Nutrisystem has an earnings ESP of 0.00%. That is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at 7 cents per share.

Zacks Rank: Nutrisystem carries a Zacks Rank #3 which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies you may consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:  

PAREXEL International Corporation PRXL, with earnings ESP of +2.25% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Align Technology Inc. ALGN, with earnings ESP of +5.13% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Becton, Dickinson and Company BDX, with earnings ESP of +2.49% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. blog">Click to get this free report >>

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
ALIGN TECH INC (ALGN): Free Stock Analysis Report
BECTON DICKINSO (BDX): Free Stock Analysis Report
NUTRI/SYSTEM (NTRI): Free Stock Analysis Report
PAREXEL INTL CP (PRXL): Free Stock Analysis Report
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