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Hugo in HTO Trading,

Crude Oil: Choppy trading ahead, but stick to your bearish guns

Crude Oil prices had earlier risen after the USD rally stalled on an unexpectedly weak U.S retail sales data. Dollar-denominated commodities, such as oil, become more appealing to holders of other currencies when the greenback depreciates.

The market also received some discouragement this week from China, as the industrial production and retail sales came out worse than expected fuelling fears of decreasing demand in Asia and putting oil prices under renewed downward pressure.

Yesterday the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest survey. The report was expected to show a decrease in crude oil stocks with estimates at 4.500 million barrels but the actual was worse than expected rising to 4.512 million barrels.

Crude oil price initially rose but found enough selling pressure at Wednesday open to turn things back around and close near the low of the day. The commodity is in a bearish phase and is more than likely to move downward to a daily support. The stochastic is showing an oversold market but even with the commodity well into oversold territory, we should not fight the strong downward trend just yet.

Expecting downward move to a daily support at 44.18 on a break below previous day low at 46.85 (scenario 1).

LCrude is a CFD written over Light Crude futures.