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GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Q1 Earnings Lag, Revenues Up Y/Y

GlaxoSmithKline plc GSK reported first-quarter 2016 core earnings of 57 cents per American Depositary Share (ADS), missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 60 cents. Nevertheless, the company’s shares inched up 1.8% following the news.

Core earnings were, however, up 8% year over year at a constant exchange rate (CER). Revenues also climbed 8% at CER to £6.2 billion.

All growth rates mentioned below are on a year-on-year basis and at CER.

The Quarter in Detail

Glaxo reports results under three segments: Pharmaceuticals, Vaccines and Consumer Healthcare.

While revenues at the Consumer Healthcare and Vaccines segments surged 26% and 23%, respectively, the Pharmaceuticals segment saw a 1% dip.

New Pharmaceutical and Vaccine products (like Relvar/Breo Ellipta and Eperzan/Tanzeum among others) registered sales of £821 million in the first quarter of 2016. Going ahead, Glaxo expects these products to deliver at least £6 billion of revenues per annum on a CER by 2018.

Within Pharmaceuticals, sales in International Pharmaceuticals and Emerging Markets fell 3% and 4%, respectively. The downside was primarily due to continued pressure on the Chinese business from healthcare sector reforms, which include significant price reductions and ongoing reshaping of the company’s business.

The segment also performed poorly in the U.S. (down 12%), due to the impact of generic competition for Avodart and Lovaza. In Europe too, sales dropped 14% mainly due to a 13% decline in Respiratory sales. The HIV segment, however, surged 57% in the reported quarter, backed by robust sales of Tivicay (£188 million) and Triumeq (£328million).

Sales of Glaxo’s respiratory drug, Advair/Seretide, continued to decline (19%) in the quarter.

In the Consumer Healthcare division, sales increased in the U.S. (26%), Europe (46%) as well as the International markets (17%). On a segmental basis, turnover increased substantially in the Wellness segment (42%), while the Skin Health and Oral Health segments registered sales growth of 93%and 6%, respectively. Sales in the Nutrition segment were, however, down 3%.

Meanwhile, the Vaccines segment benefited from continued uptake of newly acquired meningitis vaccines, Bexsero in Europe and Menveo in the U.S. and Europe, from Novartis AG NVS.

2016 Outlook

Glaxo expects core earnings percentage growth of 10%–12% in 2016.

Our Take

Glaxo’s first-quarter 2016 results were disappointing with the company missing earnings expectations. Revenues, however, were up on a year-over-year basis. We are positive on the performance of new products as well as those acquired from Novartis. These should help support revenues and ease the impact of the loss of Advair sales. We are also positive on Glaxo’s efforts in developing its pipeline candidates.

Glaxo is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock. A couple of better-ranked stocks in the health care sector are Anika Therapeutics Inc. ANIK and Emergent BioSolutions, Inc. EBS, both sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

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