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WTI Crude Oil at the Cusp of Bearish Continuation

The daily WTI CRUDE OIL chart shows a market that is bearish but started to consolidate in 2015. In March, price descended again and dug a new low on the year at 42.06 but rebounded in the second half of the month.

WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart 3/30

(click to enlarge)

This latest rally is now finding resistance before climbing back to the 54.24 high. Note that price is trying to stay below the 200-, 100-, and 50-day simple moving averages, which is a sign of bearish bias. The RSI also held below 40, which reflects maintenance of the bearish momentum. 

So is the market ready for bearish continuation as WTI Crude falls back below 50? Let’s take a look at the 4H chart for the short-term technical development.

WTI Crude 4H Chart 3/30

(click to enlarge)

Directionless: In the 4H chart, we can see that the market is more or less sideways at the moment with price whipping up and below and back up the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs. The RSI swung from 20 back up to 70, showing lack of bearish momentum and possibly even initiation of bullish momentum.

Key Support: As noted before, price is retreating below 50 and is now sliding below 48, testing a rising speedline coming up from the 42.06 low on the year. Note that price is also essentially testing the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs. Clearly, WTI Crude oil is at a critical juncture that will either open up the bearish continuation scenario or keep it in a bullish correction mode.

Bearish Continuation Scenario: break below 47.00 would clear the noted juncture of support, and open up the 42.06 low on the year, especially if the 4H RSI also falls below 40, which shows loss of the prevailing bullish momentum from mid-March.

Bullish Correction Scenario: A hold above 47 and a return back above 49 could indicate further bullish correction in the very short-term. Within the context of the prevailing downtrend in the medium-term, this bullish outlook in the short-term would be limited to the 55.00 handle, allowing for an expanded flat to be seen in the daily chart.