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AUD/USD Trying to Complete a Rounded Price Top

As AUD/USD consolidates in July, it looks like traders are rounding out a price top. July's consolidation can be compared to the consolidation in the second half of June, before price popped up to 0.95. A rounded top is therefore forming. 

AUD/USD 4H Chart 7/18


(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart provides us with some clues for the bearish outlook:

- The rejection at 0.9440 last week suggested bears are in charge.
- In July, price has been generally making lower highs and lower lows.
- Today, an attempt to push above 0.94 failed. This is important. If price can hold below 0.94 and hold below the moving averages (below 0.9380), the focus will remain on the 0.9320 support level
- If price can break below 0.9320, the lows and support area in April through May in the 0.92-0.9210 area will be exposed.
- Only a break below 0.92 should open up the bearish outlook. Otherwise, the market is neutral-bullish.

AUD/USD Daily Chart 7/18

Looking at the daily chart, we see that the bullish trend has not been killed. So the market is current bullish-neutral. It has slowed down as price is trading below a previous rising trendline, but it is still making higher lows and highs. A break below 0.9320 will turn the market to neutral, and a break below 0.92 will turn it bearish. 

The moving averages and the RSI in the daily chart also suggest the market has bullish bias. With that being said, but cautious and limit the bearish outlook.