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Morning Call For Thursday, Nov. 2

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ17 -0.07%) this morning are down -0.11% and European stocks are down -0.17% as they consolidate this week's gains in U.S. stock indexes to record highs and to 2-1/4 year highs in European bourses. The dollar moved lower and T-note prices ticked up in overnight trading on the expectations that President Trump this afternoon will appoint Jerome Powell as the next Fed Chair. The markets expect Powell to keep outgoing Fed Chair Yellen's cautious approach to withdrawing stimulus. The markets also await the rollout today by Republican House leaders of their tax reform plans. Losses in European stocks were contained after German Oct unemployment fell more than expected and the unemployment rate held at a record low. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan +0.53%, Hong Kong -0.26%, China -0.37%, Taiwan -0.17%, Australia -0.10%, Singapore -0.33%, South Korea -0.36%, India -0.08%. Japan's Nikkei Stock index bucked the trend of weaker Asian markets and rose to a new 21-1/3 year high, led by a 5% jump in Honda Motor, after the company raised its annual operating profit forecast and announced a share buyback. Also, an unexpected jump in Japan Oct consumer confidence to a 4-year high lifted Japanese stocks.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.22%) is down -0.18%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.25%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.06%.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ17 +0.06%) are up +1 tick.

German Oct unemployment fell -11,000 to 2.495 million, better than expectations of -10,000. The Oct unemployment rate held at a record low of 5.6%, right on expectations.

The German Oct Markit/BME manufacturing PMI was revised up to 60.6 from the previously reported 60.5, the strongest pace of expansion in 6-1/3 years.

The Eurozone Oct Markit manufacturing PMI was revised downward to 58.5 from the previously reported 58.6, still the highest pace of expansion in 7-1/2 years.

Japan Oct consumer confidence unexpectedly rose +0.6 to 44.5, stronger than expectations of -0.3 to 43.6 and a 4-year high.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Oct Challenger job cuts (Sep -27.0% y/y), (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +2,000 to 235,000, previous +10,000 to 233,000) and continuing claims (expected +1,000 to 1.894 million, previous -3,000 to 1.893 million), (3) Q3 non-farm productivity (expected +2.6%, Q2 +1.5%. Q3 unit labor costs expected +0.4%, Q2 +0.2%), (4) New York Fed President William Dudley delivers closing remarks at an Alternative Reference Rates Committee Roundtable, (5) USDA weekly Export Sales.


Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Apple (consensus $1.87), Yum Brands (0.67), Republic Services (0.63), Starbucks (0.55), Ralph Lauren (1.88), Cigna (2.35), Delphi Automotive (1.57), Con Ed (1.51).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Aquantia (AQ).

Equity conferences this week: VancAnalysts Association of Boston Conference on Thu-Fri, American College of Rheumatology Meeting on Fri, North American Cystic Fibrosis Conference on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Facebook (FB +1.44%) lost 1% in after-hours trading after CEO Zuckerberg said the company is serious about preventing abuse and that its investment in security in keeping "problematic content" off of its social network will affect its profitability.

MetLife (MET +0.54%) gained over 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 operating EPS of $1.09, higher than consensus of 92 cents.

Kraft Heinz (KHC +0.48%) lost nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 net sales of $6.31 billion, weaker than consensus of $6.33 billion.

L Brands (LB +1.32%) jumped 9% in after-hours trading after it reported Oct comparable sales unexpectedly rose +2%, better than consensus of down -1.7%.

Qualcomm (QCOM +4.80%) rose 1% in after-hours trading after CEO Mollenkopf said that company's chip unit is winning market share from rivals and demand from "China remains strong."

Tesla (TSLA -3.15%) slipped 4% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q3 adjusted loss of -$2.92 per share, a wider loss than consensus of -$2.27.

Symantec (SYMC -1.05%) dropped nearly 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 40 cents, weaker than consensus of 43 cents, and then lowered guidance on full-year adjusted EPS to $1.66 to $1.75 from a prior view of $1.75 to $1.85, below consensus of $1.80.

Exelixis (EXEL -2.26%) rallied 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 26 cents, well above consensus of 8 cents.

Hanesbrands (HBI -2.18%) slid 5% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q4 adjusted EPS of 51 cents-53 cents, below consensus of 56 cents, and then said its sees full-year adjusted EPS of $1.93 to $1.95, weaker than consensus of $1.99.

Yelp (YELP -1.48%) dropped 6% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q4 revenue of $211 million to $216 million, well below consensus of $233.1 million.


Shake Shack (SHAK -2.13%) rose 4% in after-hours trading after reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 17 cents, higher than consensus of 15 cents, and then said it sees full-year comparable sales down -1.5% to -2.0%, better than a prior view of sales down -2.0% to -3.0%.

FireEye (FEYE -3.25%) tumbled 13% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q4 billings of $210 million-$230 million, below consensus of $237 million.

Stratasys (SSYS -6.84%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at FBR Capital Markets.

GoPro (GPRO +2.30%) slumped 10% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q4 revenue of $460 million-$480 million, well below consensus of $521.4 million.

Oclaro (OCLR -3.02%) sank 14% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q2 revenue of $135 million to $143 million, well below consensus of $159.1 million.

3D Systems (DDD -23.67%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Market Perform' at FBR Capital Markets with a price target of $7.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec S&P 500 E-mini stock futures (ESZ17 -0.07%) this morning are down -2.75 points (-0.11%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.16%, Dow Jones +0.25%, Nasdaq unch. The S&P 500 on Wednesday climbed to a new record high and closed higher on carry-over support from a rally in European and Japanese bourses as strong global corporate earnings results lifted the Euro Stoxx 50 to a 2-1/4 year high and the Nikkei Stock Index to a 21-1/3 year high. U.S. stocks were also boosted by the +235,000 increase in the U.S. Oct ADP employment report (stronger than expectations of +200,000) and by the upbeat post-FOMC statement that said the U.S. economy continued to rise at a "solid rate" despite disruptions from recent hurricanes. Stocks were undercut by the -2.1-point decline in the U.S. Oct ISM manufacturing index to 58.7, weaker than expectations of -1.3 to 59.5.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ17 +0.06%) this morning are up +1 tick. Wednesday's closes: TYZ7 -1.00, FVZ7 -2.00. Dec 10-year T-notes on Wednesday closed slightly lower on the post-FOMC meeting statement that said the U.S. economy continued to expand despite disruptions from hurricanes. T-notes were also undercut by reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.22%) this morning is down -0.166 (-0.18%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0029 (+0.25%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.07 (-0.06%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.263 (+0.28%), EUR/USD -0.0027 (-0.23%), USD/JPY +0.54 (+0.48%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher on the stronger-than-expected increase in the U.S. Oct ADP employment report, which bolsters the case for additional rate hikes, and on the post FOMC meeting statement that said economic activity continues to rise at a solid rate despite disruptions from recent hurricanes.


Dec crude oil (CLZ17 -0.24%) this morning is up +2 cents (+0.04%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ17 +0.17%) is +0.0059 (+0.34%). Wednesday's closes: Dec WTI crude -0.08 (-0.15%), Dec gasoline +0.0085 (+0.49%). Dec crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday settled mixed. Crude oil prices were supported by the -2.435 million bbl draw in EIA crude inventories to a 1-3/4 year low (vs expectations of -1.3 million bbl) and by the -4.02 million bbl drop in EIA gasoline inventories to a 2-year low (vs expectations of -1.55 million bbl). Crude oil prices were undercut by a stronger dollar and by the +0.5% increase in U.S. crude production in the week of Oct 27 to 9.553 million bpd.

Metals prices this morning are weaker with Dec gold (GCZ17 unch) -0.7 (-0.05%), Dec silver (SIZ17 -0.38%) -0.081 (-0.47%) and Dec copper (HGZ17 -0.75%) -0.025 (-0.78%). Wednesday's closes: Dec gold +6.8 (+0.54%), Dec silver +0.483 (+2.89%), Dec copper +0.0415 (+1.34%). Metals on Wednesday closed higher with Dec silver at a 1-week high. Metals prices were boosted by the rally in global stock markets to multi-year and record highs, which shows confidence in the economic outlook that may lead to increased demand for industrial metals, and by expectations that President Trump will appoint Jerome Powell as the next Fed Chair, which would signal a continuation of Fed Chair Yellen's relatively dovish monetary policy direction.


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