Pierre A Pienaar
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The chess-games: Iran and US hold landmark nuclear talks, World powers edge closer to UN deal on Syria

Dear Reader,

Politics is like a game of chess and there are a power players and games on the world stage now.

Let the games begin:

Iran and US hold landmark nuclear talks 

Iran and the United States met for one of their highest level meetings since the 1979 revolution on Thursday as their foreign ministers joined landmark talks on Tehran's nuclear programme.

We have anew chess player in Mr. Hassan Rouhani of Iran. His call on eliminating Chemical Weapon will fall on deaf ear, because the super powers will not relinquish their weapons, maybe, minimise it slightly. If they do, they won’t be super powers anymore.

It is a good move that there are talks taken place, now we would like to see some actions on all parties.

Tensions between Iran and the West could pave the way to some positive movement in getting the parties in Syria to talk. Pres. Rouhani already committed themselves to become part of such a process.

There is actually one major problem. The Al-Qaeda linked groups in Syria rejected any alliance with rest of the Opposition groups. The call for an Islamic Republic. Another chess-game is on.

Although the World powers edge closer to UN deal on Syria. UN Security Council members edged closer on Thursday to a resolution reinforcing a US-Russian deal under which President Bashar al-Assad's Syrian government will hand over its chemical weapons, the chemical weapons in the hands of the Al-Qaeda linked groups will not be part of such an agreement. What will the world do about these groups? Since there is tension between Opposition groups, how will any agreement from outside be of any value.

Al-Qaeda linked groups could have the upper-hand in any moves towards check-mate. Who will be check-mated? Who will have the winners? Will all the role-players be able to play different chess games?

What influence has these chess games on the markets?

Since the Middle-east is about Israel, and oil, I’ll concentrate on Crude oil, leaving Israel out this time.

Iran's return to the oil market could trigger a “positive supply shock,” sending oil prices plunging by as much as US$20 per barrel, although Saudi Arabia will probably move swiftly to ensure a softer, $10-drop in crude prices.

President Obama is reported to have restored the dialog with Iran and is said to be going to promote the cancelation of all the sanctions imposed on Iran. If the sanctions are cancelled, what will be the impact on crude oil prices worldwide?

Some experts say that the major reason why top-ranking US politicians have changed their minds on Syria and Iran is crude oil. They say the USAneeds lower oil prices. One of the reasons for that is the necessity to undermine Russia’s economic stability (since Russia is a major oil and natural gas exporter and its economy is based on those exports).

Since Monday, crude oil prices have been going down again. Apparently, the major reason is the fact that investors are less concerned about a possible US-led military operation in Syria, which may destabilize the situation in the entire Middle East. Another reason is a production increase inLibya.  

The price of November futures on Brent Crude Oil is down by 1,58% to 103,59 per barrel. The price of October futures on WTI is down by 0,49%  to 104,23 per barrel.

Iran is a sleeping energy giant, sitting on the fourth-largest oil reserves and the second-largest natural gas reserves in the world. Its energy infrastructure, although suffering, can still sputter out more oil quickly if sanctions ease.

I favoured a Crude Oil weakness, but we can expect a few upward movements. Al depends on the various games

In the mean-time another chess-game at play: The dollar fell andglobal equities marketscontinued to struggle on Wednesday as concerns over a potential government shutdown in Washington kept investors cautious, even as another vote looms on raising the U.S.

The games are played by people of power and influence, and it is critical that peace and not power will be the exit strategy.

Have a peaceful, purposeful,  happy and profitable day

Pierre A Pienaar

Xcelwealth Store - Business & Investing

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