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Gold - 4 Possible FOMC Reactions

Gold has been bullish in October rallying roughly from 1183 to 1255. It has shifted to a more sideways consolidation after retreating from 1255.

The 4H chart shows that price has broken below October's rising trendline, the 4H RSI has dipped below 40, and price is in the middle of the 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMA cluster. Price action has also created a range in the past few sessions, with spikes making support and resistance at roughly 1222 and 1236. 

Gold 4H Chart 10/29(click to enlarge)

1) The first scenario is that the FOMC fails to deliver the complete removal of QE. This surprise will likely soften the USD across the board and gold should be bullish. This can be confirmed with a break above 1236. This would suggest further bullish correction first toward the 1255 high, then the 1270-1280 resistance factors seen in the daily chart.

Gold Daily Chart 10/29(click to enlarge)

2) Another scenario is that QE will be completely tapered, which is what the markets expects. Then, focus will be on the forward guidance for a rate hike. If the FOMC announces that it is concerned with increasing global uncertainty, and/or the vulnerable recovery in the US, it could be hinting at a delay in rate hike. This will also likely push gold higher, but we are more likely to see a pullback first, whereas not tapering QE completely will likely send gold higher in a hurry.

3) Let's say QE is tapered, and the FOMC does not change its tone on forward guidance. This is the most likely and most expected scenario. The USD has a bullish bias in this scenario, and gold is likely to fall, so watch for a break below 1222. Now, because this is highly expected anyway, we might see a choppy bearish continuation attempt.

4) If QE is tapered, and the FOMC has an earlier rate hike on the table, USD is likely to strengthen sharply and gold is likely to break below 1222. Unlike scenario number 3, this one is likely to send gold lower in a hurry toward that 1183 low on the month, which is just above the 2013-2014 lows around 1180.