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The Longer-Term Trend of Rising Housing Investment is Still Intact.


Right now, housing and cars are carrying the US economy, in the face of a shallow industrial recession partly in the Oil patch, and partly about the strong US$. Yesterday’s housing report didn’t exactly make the situation clearer.

Here is the longer-term look at housing permits (blue) and starts (red) dating back to the beginning of 2008. Remember that starts tend to lag permits by a month or so, and starts are about twice as volatile as permits:

Sure enough, the spike in permits from May...