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AUD/USD Testing a Key Trendline from May

AUD/USD recently made a new low on the year around 0.69 a couple of Fridays ago, but has rebounded since. As we can see in the daily chart, the pair is about to test a falling trendline coming down from a May high around 0.8165. 

AUD/USD Daily Chart 9/15 (start of Asian session)


(click to enlarge)

Thursday is a key day of FOMC event risk. USD strength this year is partly due to the expectation of a rate hike in September. However, we have seen the greenback softer recently, maybe more so against EUR and GBP. However there is doubt as to whether the FOMC will pull the trigger in September or in 2015 for that matter. 

Now I think the market will want to stick around 0.72, where price will meet the falling trendline. There might be some volatility around here, so if there is a bullish breakout before Thursday, let's not get carried away.

At this point, if price ends up holding under 0.72 after this week, especially if the FOMC does raise rates, then we should anticipate further downside risk towards the 0.69 level and possibly lower. If price ends up closing above 0.72 this week and the FOMC sites various reasons it wants to hold rates, then we can see at least a pullback towards 1) 0.7435, 2)0.7540 and the 3) 0.76 pivots.