Fan Yang
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

Gold Turning Bearish? Well, At Least its Not Bullish

Last week, gold was trading sideways, or you can say it was in a descending triangle, that is until Thursday. Price initially broke above this triangle, but struggled at it. Still the 1H RSI was held above 40, and price as trading above the 200-, 100-, and 50-hour simple moving averages, so the bullish outlook was in play. 

However, on Friday, traders sold gold from about 1315 down to about 1292. This broke below the SMAs, broke below the triangle, and dragged the 1H RSI below 30, even to 20. Then price came back up, but sellers defended the bearish outlook by holding resistance at 1310. As price now moves below 1300 to start the week, gold is confirming a shift from the bullish to bearish outlook. 

(gold 1H Chart)

The shift was not just from the bullish bias within last week's descending triangle. It is shifting away from a bullish outlook signaled by a bullish break from a falling wedge at the beginning of the month. You can see that price failed to hold above the cluster of SMAs, and the RSI reading failed to hold above 40 after tagging 70. We are thus seeing gold shift from bullish to neutral. 
We can't say it is really bearish because gold is still trading above a rising trendline from the beginning of August. A break below 1290 might be needed to bring in a stronger bearish outlook. 

(gold 4H Chart)

At this point, a break back above 1310 will be needed to show that bears have lost grip. But again, instead of a bullish outlook, we have to consider gold neutral in the medium-term. All directional outlooks for now should be kept to the short-term, with a horizon within 2 weeks.