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Will Q2 Earnings Hold a Surprise for Disney (DIS) Stock?

The Walt Disney Company DIS is slated to report second-quarter fiscal 2016 results after the closing bell on May 10, 2016. In the previous quarter, the company had clocked a positive earnings surprise of 13.2%. Moreover, the company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the past four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 7.7%. Let’s see whether the company will be able to keep its earnings streak alive this quarter as well.



Zacks Model Shows Unlikely Earnings Beat

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Disney is likely to beat earnings estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. Disney Earnings ESP is -1.42% as the Most Accurate estimate stands at $1.39, whereas the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged higher at $1.41. So, although Disney carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), a negative ESP makes an earnings beat unlikely.    

We caution against Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Factors Influencing this Quarter

For some time now, declining subscriber count and higher programming costs have been a cause of concern for investors. Disney’s primary cash cow, ESPN, has been under immense pressure as the Pay-TV landscape continues to change owing to migration of subscribers to online TV. Falling subscriptions will have a telling effect on the network’s ad revenues. Moreover, ESPN does not have any major sports contracts, which may increase cable programming and production costs.

On the other hand, the Parks & Resorts division is expected to report robust financial numbers and thus, might drive the company’s bottom line. Management stated that domestic resort reservations have inched up 2% year over year, while booking rates grew by 4% as of Feb 9, 2016. Disney is focused on deploying its capital toward expansion of the Parks and Resorts business, thereby increasing its market share and creating long-term growth opportunities.

Other Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings

Here are some other companies you may want to consider as our model shows these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. ULTA, which has an Earnings ESP of +0.76% and a Zacks Rank #1

Discovery Communications, Inc. DISCA, which has an Earnings ESP of +2.22% and a Zacks Rank #3

Tribune Media Company TRCO, which has an Earnings ESP of +3.45% and a Zacks Rank #3

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Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
 
DISNEY WALT (DIS): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
TRIBUNE MEDIA (TRCO): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
DISCOVERY COM-A (DISCA): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
ULTA SALON COSM (ULTA): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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