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EURUSD: Doji week

The European Union’s statistics office data showed last week, that euro zone’s trade surplus with the rest of the world jumped year-on-year in July as exports surged 7% while imports increased by only 1% because of much cheaper imported energy.

Inflation in the euro zone fell to 0.1% in August, revised data showed last week, in a sign that a dangerous spell of falling prices could be returning to Europe.

The euro zone suffered four months of deflation earlier this year and Fears of longer-term deflation persuaded the European Central Bank (ECB) to launch in March a huge monetary stimulus programme, to get inflation closer to its 2% target.

Last week in a closely watched news, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decided not to raise short-term interest rates off record lows urging fresh concerns over the state of the global economy.

Since the start of the year the currency fell more than 5.0% and is in a bullish phase since the start of September, trading above the 10-week moving average. Last week the EURUSD went back and forward without any clear direction with a narrow range, closing in the red near the open of the week, creating a doji pattern. The stochastic is showing a slight bullish momentum and is trying to cross above the 50 mid line.

Expecting an upward move to the top of the trading channel at 1.1871 on a break above the weekly resistance at 1.1534 (scenario 1) or a bounce from the bottom of the trading channel at 1.1052 could push the currency up to a weekly resistance at 1.1534 (scenario 2).