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Pull back within massive downtrend, but how high it can go?

Pull back within massive downtrend, but how high it can go?

Sugar #11 ICEUSA:SB1!

Brasil (major producer) is in huge trouble, so is the Sugar itself! Of course crop can be blamed, but I think USDBRL is one of the main driver here. So basically this can be another evidence how strong USD hurts commodity exporter EM countries, and causes a commodity price deflation through backloop.

This is one of the strongest and longest downtrend I have seen in my life, Price is down to levels not seen since 2008!
As you see there are minor or major pull backs within the big trend, and it looks one is starting now. I don't know how high it can shoot up, I only know it will depend a lot on USD weakness or stregth in short term.

Weekly:
- Still extremely bearish Ichimoku setup. Bearish supports are at 12,55 (Kijun) and 13,75 (future Senkou B and trendline)
- After price was dropping for 5 weeks, Heikin Ashi started to signal a possible local bottom, and start of consolidation.

Daily:
- Ichimoku is bearish with support zone at 11,60-12,00
- Heikin Ashi signalled swing reversal and start of pull back.

Strategy is: 0,5 trade unit long for 11,60 initial tgt, stop loss trailed with daily SAR (10,38 right now.)