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Market Comments for August 14, 2014

 

Yesterday the market gapped up to clear the area at “1” and stayed strong the entire day leaving a solid green bar on the daily chart that now has only the prior high on the daily chart to deal with. This puts the market into the “medium strong” category. Meaning, that a weak market that was ready to pull back aggressively would have stalled at “1” and continued lower. Prices have succeeded in crossing a significant resistance area after the initial breakdown, which means that a test of the prior high will likely occur.

Given the breakdown on the daily and the position of the weekly chart is possible that a retest of the prior high fails to follow through to a new high and we see a reversal somewhere in the general area of the prior high. This is the most likely concept that we have been discussing over the last couple of weeks and it is known as a retest and failure pattern. The strongest scenario of course is to see the market simply go to a new high and the daily chart continues the daily uptrend. At the moment the daily uptrend of the QQQ is still considered to be in place, however the SPY had its uptrend broken and has a much more difficult task to even approach is prior highs.