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Eros: Is The Game Finally Over? We Think So

Summary

Management avoided releasing a movie list until the stock dropped 30%. They provided a list of distributed films that had fewer films on it than they have previously publicly disclosed.

34 films, or 26% of the films in management’s list, were theatrically released prior to the fiscal year indicated. One additional film has yet to be released.

Based on public data sources, Eros appears to have overstated theatrical revenues by at least 116% and 49% during the fiscal years 2015 and 2014.

We now believe there is irrefutable evidence that the company’s theatrical revenues are substantially below what it has reported.

Eros released a statement and a film list yesterday in response to repeated investor questions. We believe that the film list definitively proves that Eros has been misleading investors. We believe, now more so than ever, that the company is a scam and that the equity is worthless.

Brief Background to the Eros Saga

On October 30th and November 10th, we published articles on Eros International PLC (NYSE: EROS) ("Eros"). In our most recent article, we attempted to verify the 134 films the Company claims to have released in fiscal years 2015 and 2014 in its 20-F filed with the SEC (Source, see page 34).

Unfortunately, despite our detailed work, we were unable to verify the company's claims that it had distributed 134 films. Indeed, our work suggested that the company had grossly overstated its film count. Subsequently, we challenged the company in our last article to publish the list of all 134 movies it claims to have released in its two most recent fiscal years. We also challenged the company to release revenues by film. At the Wells Fargo 2015 Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on November 11th, an attendee was actually thrown out of the Eros presentation after asking the company to release its movies.

Yesterday, November 12th, following repeated inquiries from investors, Eros released "an exhaustive list of films released in the [fiscal] year [2015 and 2014]. It includes global films, overseas only films, films with all rights as well as films with specific rights across the various languages. All films may not have been released theatrically." (Source, see latest releases tab). In addition, we used the WaybackMachine to archive this data should it ever be taken down (Source). Should the need arise, we also have screenshots of the movies named by Eros.

EROS' Film List Proves It has Overstated Film Counts

Obviously, at this point, we believe that everything released by the company needs to be verified. As a first step to verifying the company's claim that it had released a list of its movies, we counted the movies now disclosed on the company's website. Eros only published 64 and 68 movies for fiscal years ending 2015 and 2014, respectively. This is one less for each fiscal year than the numbers reported in its 20-F financials. This discrepancy should be immediately concerning to investors. Furthermore, we checked each individual movie to verify the actual release date. For the list of sixty-four movies that Eros claims it distributed in fiscal year 2015, twenty of them were actually not released during fiscal year 2015, according to independent, public sources. In other words, the company has misled investors by putting old movies onto its list of films it released.

To understand what's going on, we will analyze a few of the above "fiscal year 2015" films in further depth.

Four Two Ka One:

According to Box Office India, Four Two Ka One was released on May 10, 2013 (Source), which is during fiscal year 2014, not fiscal year 2015.

Four Two Ka One BOI

Amazingly, ErosNow also identifies as a 2013 film (Source). Nonetheless, Eros includes this film in its list of movies released during fiscal year 2015.

Four Two Ka One ErosNow

Here is a zoomed-in screenshot from ErosNow for the movie :

It's Rocking: Dard-E-Disco:

According to IMDb, It's Rocking: Dard-E-Disco was released on November 9, 2012 (Source) and was, therefore, a fiscal year 2013 film, not a fiscal year 2015 film as claimed by Eros:

Box Office India corroborates this same date (Source):

Yet again, ErosNow also identifies It's Rocking: Dard-E-Disco as a 2012 movie (Source).

Here is a zoomed-in screenshot from ErosNow for the movie It's Rocking: Dard-E-Disco:

Listen Amaya:

Similar to the previous two films, Listen Amaya was not released during fiscal year 2015 as Eros claims. The release date according to IMDb is February 1, 2013, which is part of fiscal year 2013 (Source).

Listen Amaya IMDb

ErosNow also identifies as a 2013 film, not fiscal year 2015 (Source).

Listen Amaya ErosNow

Here is a zoomed-in screenshot from ErosNow for the movie :

Box Office India lists the same date as IMDb (Source).

If investors would like to verify our work, we fully...


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