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Someone Is Lying: Consumer Confidence Is Somehow Both "Highest" And "Lowest" For The Year

To those keeping tabs on the government's propaganda, it doesn't get any more laughable than this.

One week ago, the Conference Board, a "tax-exempt non-profit business membership and research group organization" released a ridiculous number which made even the permabullish "strategists" on Wall Street blush: a consumer confidence print which soared to a level of 103: a number just shy of the January high which in turn was the highest such print going back all the way to August 2007. In short, according to this "impartial" organization, consumer confidence was the highest it has been in 2015.

 

Fast forward to today when Gallup released its own September consumer confidence number, one based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 1-30, 2015, on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of 14,684 adults. What it found is that confidence in the economy averaged -14 for September, another drop from the -13 recorded in August. As Gallup notes, "the index has declined steadily since peaking at +3 in January."

It gets worse: weekly averages for the Economic Confidence Index have remained below -10 since early July. The weekly index fell to -17 in the last week of August amid volatile international and domestic market conditions, and has averaged between -12 and -14 since. The latest weekly average, for the week ending Oct. 4, is -13.

The breakdown:

Twenty-four percent of Americans rated the current economy as "excellent" or "good," while 31% rated it as "poor." This results in a current conditions score of -7.

 

Thirty-eight percent of Americans said the economy is "getting better," while 58% said it is "getting worse." This results in an economic outlook score of -20. The economic outlook score has trailed the current conditions score since March.

 

Gallup's conclusion:

After a downward trend that started in February, Americans' confidence in the economy in September hovered at its lowest point in a year. There has been a fair share of negative economic news in the past few months, including the late-summer drop in the stock market and the government's recent disappointing jobs report. However, at the same time, the price of gas remains lower now than at this time last year. Gallup's other economic measures are showing mixed tendencies, with an increase in the percentage of Americans who say now is a good time to find a quality job, but a fairly flat pattern of consumer spending.

So according to what is arguably the most respected polling organization in the US, consumer confidence has crashed to the lowest level in a year. On the other hand, according to a tax-exempt research organization, consumer confidence is not only the highest it has been in 2015, but it practically the highest since 2007.

Someone is lying, we leave it up to readers to decide who.