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Can Deutsche Bank (DB) Turn Profitable in Q1 Earnings?

Deutsche Bank AG DB is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2016 results on Apr 28.

In the last quarter, the German banking giant reported a net loss of €2.1 billion, stemming from huge restructuring and litigation charges.

Will Deutsche Bank be able to return to profitability this earnings season? Or will it succumb to the industry challenges experienced during the quarter? Let's see what factors might have influenced the earnings report this time around.

Factors to Influence Q1 Results

Deutsche Bank expects to record a gain of around €15 million in the first-quarter 2016 from the repurchase of US Dollar-denominated securities. Also, the company expects positive earnings impact of around €40 million from the tender offer for Euro-denominated securities, completed during the quarter.

The year was off to a bad start for the banks as they faced a tough environment with a number of issues including concerns over the Chinese economic slowdown and continued volatility in commodity prices.

Notably, earlier last month, the bank had given indications of a challenging first quarter 2016. In a note to the shareholders, Co-Chief Executive Officers (CEO), John Cryan and Jürgen Fitschen mentioned “The beginning of 2016 has seen volatility in the world’s financial markets. This has impacted the banking sector. The seasonally strong first quarter might turn out to be challenging for the sector overall. Deutsche Bank is no exception to this.”

Following the broader trend of slump in investment banking and trading revenues, Deutsche Bank is likely to witness a decline as well. Further, profitability of the bank should suffer amid negative interest rates and a slow economic growth.

While the litigation burden and a stressed operating scenario remain concerns for the bank, the quarterly results are also likely to reflect the impact of several ongoing restructuring measures. Restructuring and severance charges should remain high.

Cryan, who succeeded co-CEO Anshu Jain last June, inherited the task of executing the bank’s “Strategy 2020”, which contains several measures including initiatives to reposition Investment Banking, reorganize retail business and trim the geographic footprint.  Deutsche Bank stunned the market last October by announcing its intention to axe nearly 35,000 jobs as part of its overhaul.

However, Deutsche Bank’s ability to cope with broader industry challenges amid its overhauling moves remains a key area to watch in the upcomming release. Notably, during the first quarter ended Mar 31, 2016, the bank lost more than 25% on the NYSE.

Deutsche Bank currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Other foreign banks that are expected to release results in the coming days include UBS Group AG UBS, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. MTU and The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc RBS. Royal Bank of Scotland and UBS Group are scheduled to report quarterly results on Apr 29 and May 6, respectively. Mitsubishi UFJ will report full year results on May 16.

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