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AUD/NZD at Rising Support

Last week, AUD/NZD shot up to 1.1406 before coming back down to 1.0950 in just a couple of sessions. Now, to me, that tail upwards "lubricated" the path back up to 1.1406. If price does come back to this 1.14 area, we would say that AND/NZD has "chewed" that tail.

AUD/NZD 4H Chart 9/1
(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart shows that indeed price action started to chew up the tail last week into Monday. However, it retreated sharply since the Monday session and is now testing a rising support as well as the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs). If price can hold above 1.1050 and climb back above 1.1125, we should have more confidence that price will push to 1.14, or at least the 1.13 common highs from August. The 4H RSI should also hold above 40 in this bullish scenario.

However, if price breaks below 1.1050, and starts holding under 1.1125 after subsequent pullbacks, then we should look for downside risk towards the 1.09-1.0910. This is a major support/resistance pivot and should be respected for now. A break below 1.09 can bring up further bearish outlook, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.