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Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Continues to Melt Down

Cheesecake (CAKE) has enjoyed a nice bull run from a low of 4.96 during the eye of the financial crisis to a height of 67.14 in May. Then, it started to consolidate. Then it went into bearish correction mode. This week, after a disappointing earnings report, it is extending that bearish correction mode. Because this is a correction against an 8-year bull run, CAKE has a medium-term bearish outlook.

CAKE Weekly Chart


(click to enlarge)

Major Bearish Correction Developing:
- As we can see on the weekly chart, this is a major bearish correction, unlike any of the previous ones during this 8-year run up. 
- Currently, price action is a like a falling, so it might not be prudent to try to catch this dip untill price settles.
- It might actually settle aroudn 40-43, which involves a previous common support as well as the 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the 2008-2017 rally. 
- Also note that the weekly RSI is below 30, which suggests oversold condition. The thing is, if we agree price has turned bearish at least in the medium-term, the RSI could remain in oversold levels for a long period of time. 
- Furthermore, even if we are right about the support here above 40, we will have to limit the bullish outlook.
- For example, we should not expect price to reach all the way up to the 64-68 highs. 
- We should anticipate resistance around 49-50. 58 would be considered an aggressive bullish target. 
- The reason to have conservative bullish outlook is because the rally could simply be a counter wave within the currently bearish mode. 
- At the moment, there is more downside risk than up because of the bearish momentum.
- Below 40, the next key level to monitor will be around 35-36.30, which involves the 50% retracement level, and the top of a multi-month consolidation range.

Some might play the contrarian card here to try to buy on this dip. I would be careful with that strategy. The bearish momentum of the recent months should be respected.


Here's recap of the earnings report from Nasdap.com.

Shares of The Cheesecake Factory Inc.CAKE declined over 6% in afterhours trading on Aug 2, after the company reported mixed second-quarter fiscal 2017 results. Further, a lowered fiscal 2017 outlook due to prevailing challenging restaurant environment led to the slump in the stock price.

Earnings and Revenue Discussion

Adjusted earnings of 78 cents per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 76 cents by 2.6%. However, earnings remained flat on a year-over-basis.

Sales of $569.9 million fell slightly short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $570.3 million but rose nearly 2% year over year.