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Investment idea - Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) is a commercial real estate finance company focused primarily on originating, investing in, acquiring and managing senior performing commercial real estate mortgage loans, commercial mortgage-backed securities, commercial real estate corporate debt and loans and other commercial real estate-related debt investments in the U.S. The two significant recent transactions were closed in the 2nd quarter 2013 for $76mln in total. The CEO and President of the Company commented that the pipeline of potential transactions remained strong and they saw ample investment opportunities, whereas the credit quality of the investments remained strong; moreover, the allowances for loan losses were not necessary at the end of the 2nd quarter. The significant advantage of ARI is less exposure to fixed-income market fluctuations and rising rate environment than of mREITs focused on residential mortgage-backed securities due to well-diversified loan portfolio. One of the future drivers is expansion of company’s businesses such as net lease sector which is supposed to generate stable yields.One of the most attractive factor is the Company’s dividend policy: declared dividend for 6 months amounted to $0,8 per share while net income per share amounted $0,59 which equals to 10% annualized dividend yield. Downside risks for the Company include interest rate risk, non-attractive yields in commercial real estate market, financial risk, attractive rates for capital offering.

As for the 2Q2013 results, net interest income for the 1H2013 increased by 48,2%y/y to $34,3bn, operating expenses grew by only 9,7%y/y to $8bn, net income increased to $23,7bn as compared to $19bn for 1H2012.

Consensus target price – $17,58, upside risk –14%, short-term goal – $15,75.