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Start Of The Q2 Earnings Season

The Q2 earnings season takes the spotlight with quarterly reports from the big banks next week, but companies with fiscal quarters ending in May have been reporting results already and these reports form part of our Q2 tally.

Of such companies with fiscal quarters end in May, we have seen results from 23 S&P 500 members. This is too small a sample to draw any firm conclusions from. But for whatever it is worth, the growth and proportion of positive surprises for these 23 index members are tracking above what we had seen from the same cohort of companies in other recent periods.

Q2 Estimates have come down since the quarter got underway, but the magnitude of negative revisions nevertheless compares favorably to other recent periods.

Total Q2 earnings for the S&P 500 index are expected to be up +5.7% from the same period last year on +4.6% higher revenues. The Energy, Aerospace, Finance, Technology, Construction and Industrial Products are expected to be big growth drivers in Q2, with the quarterly earnings growth pace dropping to +3.3% on an ex-Energy basis.

Beyond Q2, total earnings for the S&P 500 index are currently expected to grow by +6.3% on +4.5% higher revenues in the September quarter and +9.8% on +5.3% higher revenues in Q4.

For full-year 2017, total earnings for the index are expected to be up +7.4% on +4.2% higher revenues, which would follow +1.1% earnings growth on +2.1% higher revenues in 2016. Index earnings are expected to be up +11.3%...