Baerrus Magnus
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All posts from Baerrus Magnus
Baerrus Magnus in Options Trader; hang out at http://optionsforum.net,

Trading Range Bound Facebook

How to approach a stock, which, though wildly bullish in the past, has not been trending strongly in the last 9 months? - That is the question I have been asking myself. Well, just buy calls and ride FB to the moon seems to be the prevailing mood. Sure, but how do you make money if the stock has been stubbornly hanging in the 75-80 range? Given that FB volatility come down to a very reasonable 20%-ish, for me the answer is a calendar spread or a butterfly. Perhaps calendar is preferable since I can more easier to adjust if FB starts moving up.

Last Friday, with FB trading around $80, I opened a calendar in May-29 / Jun-19 77.5 call options, paying $0.65 for it. The interesting thing is today Monday the 18th I already started adjusting. I found that I only had 15-20 cents of time value left in my May-29 short calls. I thought I needed more theta in my position. So I converted my calendar into a butterfly spread in regular June expiration. After the adjustment I ended up with a 77.5 / 80 / 82.5 call butterfly by paying an extras $0.03. Mind you that same butterfly spread was going for $0.55 so it was not the best trade.

FB closed today at $80.88 but spent most of the day trading above $81. Having 77.5 - 82.5 range as my pivot I then setup a second calendar in 82 calls with the same expiration dates as the original one. The new 82 call calendar cost me $0.83. Now I am in a position I like: should FB drift down my butterfly will gain in value. Alternatively should FB take off toward its all time highs of $85, I can adjust my new calendar into a bull spread in June options. Hopefully capturing a modest profit. Of course if FB stays around $82 for 12 days is the most lucrative scenario. The only outcome harmful for my position is a sudden, large move in either direction. Such moves destroy all value in all range bound option positions.