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Weekly Natural Gas Recap - Near-Term Weakness Behind Us

Summary

We see near-term price weakness behind us.

We should see low relative injection figures for the next two weeks.

Canadian gas imports increasing won't hurt overall US storage much.

Storage report came in this week +5 Bcf higher than the consensus average of +24 Bcf. Despite the modestly bearish injection report, natural gas (NYSEARCA:UNG) prices stayed resilient.

We would have expected a much larger sell-off, but prices actually stayed above $2.52/MMBtu. Looking at the recent changes to the August temperature forecasts, demand models haven't actually changed much. Despite the probability of cooler weather increasing for the middle of US, our current demand models actually had injection figures for the end of August being lower than the previous estimate.

This week also saw the AECO basis differential...


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