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EUR/USD in Bearish Continuation Mode after the ECB and NFP Event Risks

Today was a big one for the FX market in terms of fundamental event risks. The ECB announced monetary policy decisions and the NFP showed jobs data for June. While the ECB did not provide anything new for the market the June US NFP report came in surprisingly strong and gave the USD a jolt across the board.


(eurusd 4h chart, 7/3)

The 4H EUR/USD chart shows a bearish breakout of June's rising trendline. This exposes the June lows around the 1.35-1.3520 area. However, we need to see a clear break below 1.36, or the break is not valid yet. Also if there is a pullback, it should stay below 1.3640. A break above 1.3665 would be a bullish signal, and reflect a false breakdown.



(eurusd daily chart, 7/3)

The daily chart shows a bearish continuation picture. After breaking below the moving averages price stalled in June. This week, price held at the 200-, and 50-day moving averages. Today, price confirmed the 1.37 level and those moving averages giving traders a bearish signal.

Also note that the RSI was held at 60, which shows bearish momentum developing.