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USD/JPY Surges as the Jobless Claims Reading Falls Below 300K

I have been mentioning that the jobless claims reading has been around 300K, which is a decent pace. But I noted that a drop below 300K should start to gain attention for USD-strength. Today, US jobless claims for the last week came in at 284K, much lower than the 310K forecast and the previous week's reading of 303K. This is a 8-year low in jobless claims. 

(source: forexfactory.com)

The USD/JPY rallied sharply after this data, preventing a bearish outlook that came close as USD/JPY approached the 2014-low, and descending triangle support seen in the daily chart.

Looking at the 4H chart, USD/JPY is still held under a falling trendline from  June. A break above 102 should clearly break above the trendline, and signal a bullish outlook in the short-term. For now, all we are seeing is the bearish outlook failing as price stayed above the 100.76 2014-low.

USDJPY 4H and Daily Charts, 7/24


Even if price moves above the June trendline, there is still the 2014-descending-triangle-resistance. A break above 102.50 would probably do the job. Before then, consider the market sideways, and respect key resistace especially when the 4H, and 1H RSIs are both in overbought levels (above 70).