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SP500 - Anticipating Another Round of Bearish Correction

The S&P500 has been storming back up the past couple of weeks. Yet it is still under the March low around 2040. Still, the sharp rally has some believing the bull market is back in force. Though it is possible, I prefer to believe that the index is still in consolidation mode.

SP500 Daily Chart 10/12

(click to enlarge)

Now, when we look at the daily chart, we can see that 2040 was the base of a price top, and now might be tested as a resistance. Price is still under the 200- and 100-day simple moving averages. The RSI is at 60. The combination of these factors actually gives me the idea to short this market. Price is still moving higher, so let's wait for the market to show us whether our theory has a chance. If price blows past 2050 this week, especially if the daily RSI clears above 60, we should probably keep the bearish outlook shelved. BUT if this week shows resistance around 2040-2050, we might consider shorting for the short to medium-term.

If you don't like shorting stocks, it still might be prudent to anticipate a bearish attempt as price nears 2040. Then, it becomes a waiting game. The 1875-1900 might be support, if the market is neutral-bullish. But if there is further bearish correction ahead, there is downside risk down to the 1800 area, or the 2014-low around 1740, which is also where the 200-week SMA resides.

S&P500 Weekly Chart 10/12
(click to enlarge)