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The Most Important Commodity For Housing Is Screaming "Recession"

While Crude Oil and Dr. Copper are often cited as economic indicators, as we noted previously, in fact Lumber prices are the most correlated with ISM and GDP of all industrial commodities (h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer). That is a problem. Lumber prices are tumbling - breaking to 18-month lows today. We have seen this picture before, and it did not end well...

 

Deja vu...

 

But it's different this time... becausae fundamentals mean absolutely sweet F.A. ... until of course they do.

*  *  *

Awkwardly, earnings are also flashing a big red "recession" warning...

 

 

 

Chart: Bloomberg