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Gold - Near-term Double Top within a Bull Market

Gold has been in a bull market in 2016. After a price bottom formed at the end of 2015, XAU/USD has been rallying, tagging 1280 in March.

XAU/USD Daily Chart 4/20/16

(click to enlarge)

We can see that price action started getting choppy even before tagging 1280. Still, the overall technical picture is bullish as price trades above the moving averages. Also, the RSI has pushed above 70, way above 70, and has been holding above 40, which shows maintenance of the prevailing bullish momentum. 

XAU/USD 1H Chart 4/20

(click to enlarge)

Although the choppiness did not affect the momentum in the daily chart, it did push near-term momentum. The 1H chart shows the RSI tagging both 30 and 70. However, after the latest upswing, we can see that the RSI pushed above 70, but has yet to push below 40. Also, price in this time frame is also above the moving averages.

Now, there is a small double bottom from the 4/19 session. I think there is some near-term downside risk , but if the market is indeed bullish, price should hold above 1240. In this scenario, I would anticipate a test of the 1255 area, with upside towards 1260-1262. That's the short-term outlook. Since the medium-term trend is still bullish, there is upside risk towards 1280 as well, with 1300 as the most aggressive target for now. 

If instead, price falls below 1237, and if the 1H RSI falls below 40, we should consider gold sideways in the very short-term. Still the medium-term picture would be bullish-neutral. The short-term bearish risk has the 1225-1230 low as a first target, with downside risk to the 1205-1210 lows as well, and with 1200 as the most aggressive bearish outlook for now. 

So, let's see if price can hold above 1240.